Don’t get fancy with your labor market fixes for AI

AI could be unpredictable. Our labor market response to it shouldn't be.

The only thing emerging faster than the AI arms race in America is the debate over what to do about the workers who AI will displace.

Many of the loudest voices are also pitching some of the most ambitious ideas. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is interested in implementing a universal basic income (UBI) — an experimental idea that would require not only a gigantic budget but also massive new infrastructure to develop and implement. UBI sounds like a simple solution, but any new program — particularly one aimed at universality — would need to make decisions about eligibility, implementation, and oversight that are complex and politically contentious.

While politicians and tech optimists are out there pitching programs that are tough to build consensus around — or overly specific to the point of being unworkable — we already have a boring, scalable solution to the problem of mass job loss.

It’s called unemployment insurance (UI).

The best economic policy is flexible, automatic, and responsive to a range of shocks. UI already exists in all 50 states and has a strong track record of responding to technological disruption in the labor market.

We don’t yet have a clear sense of exactly how big AI’s labor-market disruptions will be — or who would be most immediately affected. By bolstering a long-running program that already serves as a social safety net for the unemployed, the economy can endure whatever shocks AI might deliver.

Why build UBI when we already have UI?